One can only wonder if the international role of the U.S. under Obama will indeed, as some have predicted, enter historically unprecedented territory, or will be more of a return to the pre-Bush era.
Just a few months ago, President-elect Barack Obama criticized Sen Hillary Clinton as being “Bush-Cheney lite” with regards to foreign policy. Now, Obama nominated her as Secretary of State. Meanwhile, the nomination of Chuck Hagel as a member of President Obama’s Cabinet is still conceivable.
Furthermore, several architects of the Clinton and Carter presidencies, such as Madeleine Albright and Zbigniew Brzezinski, are among Obama’s advisers.
Although Obama has not been inaugurated, the Cabinet-building process offers insight into what his foreign policy may be like.
Clinton voted in favor of the United States’ invasion of Iraq and is a supporter of a visible U.S. military presence in the world. While many observers of the political scene believe that Hagel is a rebellious “maverick” because of his criticism of the Iraq War and the PATRIOT Act, his voting record otherwise conforms to Republican orthodoxy.
The core message of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign was change, but many have wondered what exactly this change will entail. Judging from the Cabinet-building process, the answer appears to be not much. Contrary to the predictions of some, the Obama administration will continue the foreign policy of its predecessors in a more moderate manner.
While Obama claims to have opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, it is unclear how soon American troops will be pulled out of Iraq. Even if U.S. military presence in Iraq is rapidly ended, the Obama administration will expand it elsewhere. Obama himself never tried to conceal the fact that he wanted to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan.
After the election, much of the Third World expected the Obama administration would increase aid, cancel debt and establish more fair trading relationships.
However, having enrolled his children in an elite school, having finished the most expensive electoral campaign in United States history and living in a mansion prior to the White House, why would Obama be expected to be more generous than any other Western politician?
The primary changes offered by the Obama administration will be a liberalization of social norms and moderate amendments to the tax system. These changes will have marginal, if any, effects on the rest of the world.
With an unpopular president, a seemingly endless war and a deteriorating economy the outburst of optimistic energy across the U.S. with the election of Obama was natural. However, put into larger perspective, the international explosions of joy from Berlin to Benin City appear to be more a consequence of Obama’s charisma than of a realistic understanding of his true intentions.
Disappointed Republicans should sleep peacefully and thrilled Democrats should add some realism to their dreams.
Once the fireworks die down and yards gradually become empty of campaign signs, it will become clear that America’s global role will barely change during the Obama presidency.