One of the biggest foreign policy discussions in recent weeks in this country is not the United States’ withdrawal from Iraq or the current state of affairs in Afghanistan, but rather the potential threat of Iran. Iran has most likely garnered so much attention because it seems to be the only issue that the Republican presidential hopefuls want to discuss in regards to foreign policy.
Mitt Romney, the presumptive Republican nominee, is adamant that he would prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. In one of the Republican Party’s incalculable number of debates back in November, he vowed, “if ‘crippling sanctions’ failed, war would be an option because it is ‘unacceptable’ for Iran to become a nuclear power.” Here’s the thing, Iran’s nuclear program is gaining ground by virtue of the fact that nuclear technology is over half a century old and Iran has a scientific community dedicated to harnessing this technology. So Iran becoming a nuclear power is inevitable I’m afraid.
The Iranians’ chest thumping is nothing to be afraid of. Iran is in bad shape. Sanctions imposed on Iran have sent the economy downward resulting in a devaluation of the rial, Iran’s currency. The current regime is fractured and lacks allies in the region. Its closest ally, Syria, has its own set of problems with the prospect of a civil war seen as a very distinct possibility in that country. The remaining Persian Gulf states are banding together against Iran. In fact, the United States and Saudi Arabia recently brokered a $30 billion arms deal that will send various weapons to the kingdom, according to the Washington Post.
The threat of more sanctions and the harm it would do to the already weak Iranian economy led to an Iranian Admiral threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. This threat was quickly quelled by a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard because like many in the government, he realized a total blockage of the strait would hurt Iran more than any other country. Since oil exports are depended upon to keep the economy going, as well as the fact that Iran lacks the naval prowess to even pull off this supposed threat.
Iran is like the fifth-grade bully that everyone is afraid of because he looks like he should probably be in the eighth-grade, but in reality he just went through puberty earlier than everyone else. He’s a softy at heart who is misunderstood and everyone comes to realize this once someone in class actually takes him up on the offer to meet behind the school by the dumpsters after school. The bully doesn’t show because he knows he won’t win. Everyone else in class can give a collective sigh of relief. Same goes for the world and Iran. Once we all realize that Iran is weak, we too can have our Kevin McCallister from Home Alone moment as we all chant, “I’m not afraid anymore.”