The Creighton Bluejays (24-10) have made it into the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year, this year playing as the #9 seed in the South Region against the #8 seed Louisville Cardinals (27-7). Louisville went 18-2 in the ACC in conference play and finished in the finals of the ACC Tournament, sustaining just two losses in the 2025 calendar year at Georgia Tech on Feb. 1 and against Duke in those ACC Finals. Now, the team ranked 10th overall in the AP Poll will not only play as an underseeded team, but get to play games in their home state of Kentucky for the first two rounds. First-year Head Coach Pat Kelsey has turned around a program that won just eight games last season, and his reward is to play in front of a likely partisan crowd in Lexington, Kentucky. Creighton will have to be ready, but with a senior-heavy lineup riddled with NCAA Tournament experience, Head Coach Greg McDermott will have his players prepared.

South Region Rundown

#1 Auburn, the number one overall seed in the tournament, will play the winner of #16 Alabama State or #16 Saint Francis, who both play in the First Four on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. #8 Louisville and #9 Creighton are also in this pod, with the winner advancing to play either Auburn or Alabama State/Saint Francis on this upcoming Saturday. These Round of 64 and Round of 32 games will be played in Lexington, Kentucky.

In Denver, #4 Texas A&M will play #13 Yale and #5 Michigan will play #12 UC San Diego. The earliest Creighton could see any of these four teams would be in the Sweet Sixteen. As a member of the South Region, Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games are played in Atlanta.

In Milwaukee, #3 Iowa State will play #14 Lipscomb, and #6 Ole Miss will play the winner of #11 San Diego State or #11 North Carolina. This 11-seed play-in will also be played in Dayton on Tuesday. Meanwhile, in Cleveland, #2 Michigan State will play #15 Bryant and #7 Marquette will play #10 New Mexico. The earliest Creighton could see any of these nine teams would be in the Elite Eight.

Louisville Personnel

Louisville is led in scoring by graduate guard/forward Terrence Edwards Jr., who is averaging 16.6 points per game in 32.6 minutes per game over 34 games and 31 starts. Edwards is taking more shots than any player for Louisville by a wide margin, having taken 449 shots this season, which averages out to 13.2 field goal attempts per game. Within the arc, Edwards is shooting 52.2 percent on 255 two-point attempts, and though he is shooting 33.0 percent from three this season, he still shoots about six three-pointers a game. An All-ACC Third-Team member, Edwards was at James Madison last year before transferring to Louisville for his final season, a decision being rewarded with his second consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance.

Arguably, Edwards is neither the most important player on Louisville’s roster nor the top player on Creighton’s scouting report. Instead, that honor likely goes to the Omaha native, senior guard Chucky Hepburn. The Wisconsin transfer had a strong year with the Badgers in 2023-24, but took his game to another level in 2024-25 with Louisville, earning an All-ACC First Team selection and winning ACC Defensive Players of the Year. In nearly 35 minutes per game, Hepburn is averaging 16.2 points per game with 5.8 assists per game and 2.5 steals per game, the last mark leading the ACC. He is shooting the ball at a 43.5 percent clip from the field and 33.2 percent clip from three, has started in all 33 of his appearances this season, and leads the team in total minutes played. There will be more analysis on Hepburn’s impact on this game, but his presence defensively is significant for the Cardinals and their chances to win.

Senior guard Reyne Smith presents an interesting wrinkle to the Louisville game plan. He has not played in a game for Louisville since March 5 against California, where he played just six minutes before getting injured. Smith has been starting in the games he has played recently, having shot 277 three-pointers on a 38.3 percent clip. Averaging 13.4 points per game, Smith is a huge loss for the Cardinals that Kelsey assuredly wants to have back for the game against Creighton.

Graduate guard J’Vonne Hadley rounds out the healthy double-figure scorers. His 12.1 point per game contributions have granted him 34 starts in his 34 appearances, and his size at six-foot-six makes him an aggressive shooter inside the paint. Of his 291 shots, 208 have been inside the arc, where he is shooting 56.7 percent from two. If this wasn’t enough of a concern, Hadley can hit from deep as well, shooting 38.6 percent from three on 83 attempts this season, a percentage that leads the team. Hadley will provide a mismatch for Louisville to exploit if available with players like Smith and Hepburn.

Finally, the Cardinals’ presence inside is sophomore forward James Scott. Scott is an extremely effective two-point shooter, leading the conference in two-point percentage at 78.1 percent. Scott also leads the team in rebounding with 6.2 rebounds per game, but is not much of a shot-blocker for Louisville with only 30 blocks on the season. He’s limited in his shot attempts, but converts when given the opportunity.

Graduate forward Noah Waterman will likely come off the bench for Louisville on Thursday, but he will present more issues for Creighton. The six-foot-11 forward has shot more than 67 percent of his total field goals attempts from range, converting just 28.9 percent of the time. Waterman will try to pull Creighton centers out of the paint and will likely have a green light against the Bluejays as a result of his size and willingness to shoot.

Senior forward Aboubacar Traore and freshman forward Khani Rooths will round out the likely rotation for the Cardinals. Traore is a slasher at six-foot-five, taking just six three-point attempts this season and making just one. Rooths also has been relatively cold from deep, taking 51 of his 104 shots from deep and converting on just 23.5 percent. Players like Waterman and Rooths need to be kept in check from distance to help keep Creighton’s defensive scheme going.

Louisville Last Game

The Cardinals last appeared in a game last Saturday against Duke in the ACC Championship Game, resulting in a 73-62 loss against the Cooper Flagg-less Blue Devils. The Cardinals used a seven man rotation, playing Edwards and Hepburn for 40 minutes each. Despite inefficient shooting nights from both Edwards and Hepburn, shooting a combined 17-45 from the field, both players hunted their shot and managed a combined 43 points in the loss to Duke. 

On the Blue Devils’ side, guards led the way, with their three leading scorers being listed as guards or guard/forwards. Notably, Duke’s freshman center, Khaman Maluach, scored just eight points, but on efficient 4-5 shooting and with 10 rebounds (five offensive) to tout. It’ll be talked about more, but ensuring that Creighton’s senior center Ryan Kalkbrenner gets his fair share of shots down low will be paramount for Creighton to win against Louisville.

Creighton Last Game

Creighton played in their fifth Big East Tournament Championship last Saturday, but lost 88-66 to the St. John’s Red Storm. Creighton took a lead into halftime, but given the length and intensity of their first two games in New York City, the Jays looked tired after about 25 minutes of constant St. John’s pressure. The Red Storm put up 57 second-half points and made buckets in spectacular fashion, helped by fresher legs with easier games in their prior two matchups. Creighton couldn’t keep up and fell short of their first Big East Tournament Championship.

Creighton Notes

• Creighton should hope for good news about freshman guard Fedor Zugic’s health and availability in this NCAA Tournament. Zugic tweaked his ankle against St. John’s in the Big East Championship game and did not return, but his minutes in the DePaul game–resulting in 13 points–were a catalyst for the 11-point comeback late in the quarterfinals. Zugic is a great player for Creighton in several ways: playmaking, especially in the entry passes he can convert to the center; athleticism, specifically the ability to utilize the first step and turn the corner to the basket; outside scoring, as Zugic is shooting 42.1 percent (8-19) in his last ten appearances. They need him to be available to help not only get Neal rest, but simply to help show these skills off in an effort to win Creighton’s test against Louisville.
• Sophomore forward Isaac Traudt is key to Creighton’s success in the NCAA Tournament in part because he struggles away from home. Traudt is shooting 45.3 percent from three in home games, but just 26.5 percent away from the CHI Health Center in Omaha. Traudt is a catalyst in a lot of ways, like Zugic, but he needs to be able to hit shots to help extend Creighton’s season. 

Things to Watch

1. It was mentioned that Hepburn would play a big part for Louisville chances in Lexington against the Bluejays and I don’t think that is an understatement. KenPom ranks Hepburn top-60 nationally in assist rate at 31.4 percent and steal rate at 4.1 percent. These numbers mean that Hepburn accounts for 31.4 percent of Louisville’s assists while on the court and that, while Creighton has the ball and Hepburn is on the court, Hepburn has a 4.1 percent chance to register a steal. This steal rate is somewhere between Marquette’s Stevie Mitchell and Georgetown’s Micah Peavy, the former registering four steals and the latter swiping the ball 11 times against Creighton. Both Mitchell and Peavy were trying to heat up senior guard Steven Ashworth, and with Ashworth contributing 3.5 turnovers per game himself, I anticipate Hepburn will try to do the same. One key to this game will be points off turnovers, as Louisville turns its opponents over 12.9 times per game and earned 14.6 points off those turnovers.
2. On paper, Smith being in the game and healthy for Louisville hurts Creighton. He attempts more threes than any other Cardinal, is within tenths of a percentage point of Hadley for highest three-point percentage and rarely turns the ball over. What he does do, in return, is make Louisville’s guards smaller compared to players like Creighton’s senior guard/forward Jamiya Neal. If Hepburn and Smith start, that’s two six-foot-two guards that will provide Neal with an opportunity to exploit Smith’s defense on the perimeter. Neal has the capacity, more than Ashworth, to create his own shot. With that, Neal can create opportunities for himself to score while Hepburn is covering Ashworth. To put it lightly, while the offense helps Louisville, if Creighton can contain Smith in the situation that Smith starts, the Bluejays provide themselves a solid avenue for scoring with Smith likely covering Neal.
3. Kalkbrenner needs to be established early and often in this matchup. Scott and Waterman can do damage on Louisville’s offensive end, but Kalkbrenner is bigger than both of these players. Creighton needs to get creative getting Kalkbrenner the ball and Kalkbrenner needs to be aggressive hunting his shot in the paint. Creighton can win this game against Louisville, but it will require Kalkbrenenr to be hot.